1.2.8 — Application Exercise: Assumption Mapping and Evidence-Based Decision-Making

Strategic decisions in entrepreneurship often emerge from a mix of intuition, experience, belief, and limited information. While intuition plays an important role, especially in fast-moving environments, decisions grounded in untested assumptions can lead to misalignment, wasted resources, or premature strategy commitment. This exercise is designed to slow down the automatic decision-making process and create space for clarity, evidence, and intentional reasoning. By examining assumptions rather than accepting them as truth, leaders strengthen decision quality and improve the likelihood of making choices aligned with real-world conditions rather than internal expectations.

Select one strategic decision currently under consideration — this may relate to product development, pricing, hiring, market expansion, branding, technology investment, or operational priorities. You will use this decision as the basis for the following structured reflection.

Step 1 — Identify Assumptions

List every assumption influencing the decision. Include beliefs about customers, timelines, competitor responses, costs, feasibility, adoption, or expected outcomes. Be thorough — assumptions often hide behind statements that sound like facts.

Use prompts such as:

• What must be true for this decision to succeed?
• What am I assuming about customer behavior, demand, or preferences?
• What am I assuming about costs, timelines, and operational capacity?
• What am I assuming competitors will or will not do in response?

Step 2 — Validate the Basis of Each Assumption

For every assumption, determine whether it is grounded in:

• Evidence (data, analytics, measurable behavior)
• External Validation (expert feedback, customer interviews, third-party research)
• Controlled Testing (prototypes, experiments, A/B testing, pilots)

Mark any assumption supported only by intuition, optimism, preference, or past experience as unvalidated. Do not discard these assumptions yet — simply label them clearly so you can distinguish between what is known and what is merely believed.

Step 3 — Rewrite the Decision Using Only Validated Inputs

Reformulate the decision as if only confirmed evidence may influence direction. Remove or flag untested assumptions and note whether:

• The decision strengthens — evidence reinforces the original direction
• The direction changes — evidence suggests an alternative path is wiser
• More information is required before proceeding — validation gaps are too large to justify commitment

Write a brief paragraph summarizing the revised version of the decision, explicitly stating which elements are supported by evidence and which remain provisional.

Step 4 — Define the Next Step

Based on what remains after separating validated inputs from assumptions, choose one of the following paths:

• Proceed — move forward because the decision is sufficiently supported by evidence.
• Pause — delay commitment until specific uncertainties are clarified.
• Test — design an experiment, pilot, or prototype to validate key assumptions.
• Pivot — adjust the decision or strategic direction in light of what the evidence now reveals.

If additional validation is required, define one concrete method to obtain it (e.g., user interviews, prototype testing, financial modeling, market analysis). Be specific about what you will test, how you will test it, and what result would increase or decrease your confidence in the decision.

Objective of the Exercise

The purpose of this exercise is not to slow momentum but to distinguish belief from evidence and ensure decisions are grounded in validated insight. By applying this process consistently, entrepreneurs strengthen judgment, accelerate learning, and reduce avoidable strategic missteps driven by cognitive bias.