1.2.10.8. Case Application Exercise

Applying Bias Interruption to Strategic Decision-Making

Using the Tesla case as a reference point, select one real strategic decision you are currently considering — such as pricing, hiring, automation, product launch timing, scaling, partnerships, or operational expansion. Write the decision in one precise sentence, as Tesla did when defining the Model 3 automation strategy. Avoid explanation, reasoning, or justification. Clarity is the only requirement at this stage.

Step 1 — Identify Hidden Assumptions

List all assumptions influencing the decision. Consider expected timelines, resource capability, customer behavior, technology performance, competitive response, internal capacity, and financial feasibility. Do not evaluate the assumptions yet — simply make them explicit.

Tip: Tesla’s automation plan was built on assumptions about precision, speed, and reduced labor dependency. Your assumptions may be similarly embedded in expectations rather than evidence.

Step 2 — Classify the Assumptions

Assign each assumption to one of the following categories:

• Validated: Supported by data, testing, market proof, or credible external benchmarks.
• Unvalidated: Reasonable but not yet confirmed.
• Bias-based: Driven by optimism, emotion, pressure, habit, identity, or preference rather than information.

This step reveals where cognitive mechanisms — such as optimism, anchoring, confirmation bias, or automation bias — may be influencing direction and urgency.

Step 3 — Reconstruct the Decision Using Only Validated Inputs

Rewrite your original decision using only validated assumptions. Compare the revised version with the original and reflect on the following:

• Did the timeline change?
• Did the scope or ambition shrink, expand, or refocus?
• Did your confidence level increase, decrease, or shift?
• Did you recognize areas where belief had replaced evidence?

This moment mirrors Tesla’s pivot from fully automated production to a balanced human–automation system — a shift from idealized ambition to evidence-aligned execution.

Step 4 — Recalibration in Action

Commit to one specific action within the next 72 hours that reduces uncertainty and strengthens the revised decision. Examples include:

• running a small-scale experiment
• gathering user or market data
• conducting a benchmark validation
• testing assumptions with a subject-matter expert
• stress-testing risks with scenario planning

The goal is not perfection — it is momentum toward clarity.

Step 5 — Final Reflection

In 3–5 sentences, describe what shifted when assumptions became visible. Consider:

• Where did confidence come from — belief or evidence?
• Which assumption carried the greatest strategic risk?
• What did this process reveal about how you normally make decisions?

This exercise is designed to help you do what Tesla eventually mastered: move from vision-driven certainty to evidence-informed execution, without losing ambition.